5 year plan simulation

5 year plan

In order to make a five-year profit forecast for the USB quantum cryptographic device manufacturing and sales business, it is necessary to consider the market growth rate and business characteristics. Presented below is an earnings simulation based on Quantum Cryptography market growth forecasts.

*The discussion below does not include predictions regarding various products scheduled to be introduced in the future. Therefore, we will focus on USB quantum cryptographic devices here.

Market growth rate

• The Quantum Cryptography Market size is estimated at USD 0.58 billion in 2024, and is expected to reach USD 2.09 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 29.19% during the forecast period (2024-2029) [1].

Revenue forecast simulation

1. First Year (2025):

   • Device Sales: 600,000 units

   • Selling Price: 20 USD

   • Revenue: $600,000 \times 20 = 12M \, \text{USD}$

   • Subscription Registration Rate: 50%

   • Subscription Revenue: Approximately 4.86M USD (based on previous calculations)

2. Second Year (2026):

   • Device Sales: 1.2 million units

   • Revenue: $1.2M \times 20 = 24M \, \text{USD}$

   • Subscription Revenue: Expected to increase (based on the growth rate from the previous year)

3. Third Year (2027):

   • Revenue Increase due to Market Growth: Considering a 29.19% growth rate

   • Revenue: $24M \times 1.2919 \approx 31.0056M \, \text{USD}$

4. Fourth Year (2028):

   • 売上: $31.0056M \times 1.2919 \approx 40.056M \, \text{USD}$

5. Fifth Year (2029):

   • Revenue: $40.056M \times 1.2919\approx 51.748M \, \text{USD}$

*Subscriptions are not included in the above sales. See income statement below.

5 year plan income statement

Positive version (CAGR 30%)

418KB

Quantum cryptographic device monthly income and expenditure plan EN01.pdf

pdf

5 year plan income statement positive version

Conservative version (CAGR 15%)

417KB

Quantum cryptographic device monthly income and expenditure plan EN02.pdf

pdf

5 year plan income statement conservative version

Other Considerations

• Operating Costs: 35 million JPY/month (approximately 3.5M USD/year)

• Sales Costs: 30% of subscription revenue

• Market Competition and Technological Advancements: These factors may impact revenue, necessitating continuous monitoring.

This simulation represents an ideal forecast based on the growth rate of the quantum cryptography market, and actual revenue may vary depending on market conditions and business strategies.